In an interview with CNBC, Du said that bitcoin bull markets are closely correlated to a process called halving, which occurs roughly every four years, and that investors can expect to wait a while before seeing some positive price action in the crypto market.
“Following this cycle, it won’t be until end of 2024 to beginning of 2025 that we can welcome next bull market on bitcoin.”Jun Du — CNBC
Halving refers to a step in the Bitcoin mining process, where “miners” use enormous amounts of computing power to solve complex cryptographic problems to validate transactions on the bitcoin blockchain. When a miner successfully solves a puzzle and validates a transaction, they are given bitcoin as a reward. So, “Halving” is literally when the amount of bitcoin miners receive as a reward gets cut in half.
Historically, price action concerning ‘halving’ has followed a somewhat similar pattern. The last halving occurred in May 2020 and 12 months later Bitcoin had rocketed to a new all-time-high — similar price movement occurred when halving took place in 2016.
Du went on to explain that while certain patterns can serve as good indicators making concrete predictions in the crypto market is extremely difficult.
“It is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent Covid, also affect the market,” added Du.
At the time of writing Bitcoin is trading for $37,641 USD ($52,380 AUD) down 43.9% from it’s all-time-high late last year. This continued slide from the Bitcoin’s recent all-time-highs in November last year has many investors concerned that this may be the start of a “crypto winter”.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Jesse Powell, the CEO of crypto exchange Kraken, said that he was forced to reverse his prediction of ‘$100k Bitcoin’ in late-2021, and accept that a crypto winter is now “possible” for 2022 and beyond.
However, according to Aussie-crypto exchange BTC Markets CEO, Caroline Bowler—the current market conditions aren’t cause for too much concern:
“I’ve been through a crypto winter before and I don’t think that’s what we’re in now… what we’re seeing now is more of a reasonable response to market conditions than a fully fledged crypto-winter”Bowler: Cointelegraph.
This article is not intended as definitive legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser.