2025 Could Be The Year To Finally Score A Rolex Deal Or Better... Here's What You Need To Know

It feels odd to say it, but in a shaky economy comes opportunity. Right now, if you’re hunting a luxury watch, the conditions might be better than they’ve been in years.

The logic is simple. Retailers don’t get to ride out a soft market — the rent’s still due, staff still need paying, bills still stack up. Unlike consumers, they can’t just wait for sunnier days. They’ve got to move stock.

And that means watches once considered untouchable are suddenly negotiable. Pieces where, not long ago, the idea of a discount was laughable.

Word is some Australian boutiques are now a little more “flexible”. Find the right salesperson, avoid the ultra-hyped references, and you might just walk out with a deal. We’re not talking fire sales, but 10 percent off, maybe more is on the table.

Unfortunatly some models will remain off limits but others you might get lucky.

Of course, the brands will not say this publicly. They will tell you everything is fine. That the waitlists are still long. That demand remains strong. But behind closed doors, it is a very different story for many of them.

Globally the outlook on luxury is soft. We have war in the middle-east and locally ‘luxury’ retailers like Cettire which have always been a barometer on appetite for luxury which now seem to be on the ropes. Hell, I used to shop like a crackhead on Mr Porter, these days it doesnt even get a look in.

There are a few exceptions. Some brands are still performing.

Rolls-Royce, for instance, bizarrely up 75% year to date in Australia for sales. In watches, it is the same familiar names. Patek Philippe. Audemars Piguet. Rolex. They are still the exception to the rule. Do not expect to get a discount on any of those, not now and not any time soon. The demand is still too strong.

Cartier seems to be growing too, but that is more because of jewellery than their watches. Jewellery always seems to hold up better in tough times. Hermès is another one. They are growing, but again, Hermès has always existed in its own strange orbit.

When you step back and look at the broader luxury groups though, the trend is obvious. Richemont. LVMH. Most of these big groups are seeing declines. Swatch Group is not immune either. China was supposed to be the great saviour but there is still no real sign of recovery there. And until China picks up again, much of the global luxury market remains flat.

Even the mightiest brands and models are now easier to acquire.

We’re also seeing the pressure filter down into how brands behave.

The big-money marketing machine has eased off fewer extravagant events, fewer international junkets, and a noticeable pullback in aggressive ad spends. Instead, brands are leaning heavily on their existing equity and loyal customers to keep the wheels turning.

And that’s where things get interesting for buyers. When retailers are under the pump and targets still need hitting, they’ll do what it takes. They’ll shift stock. And for you, that means the chance to pick up a watch in conditions that rarely swing in your favour.

You do need to be realistic. You are not getting a discount on a Rolex Daytona. You are not getting a discount on a Royal Oak. But walk in and ask about something a little less hyped, maybe a DateJust and you may be pleasantly surprised.

The brands will hate me saying this, but frankly, it is the truth. And everyone is watching their money right now. Fewer orange mocha frappuccinos. Fewer holidays. Less business class.

TAG Heuer Sydney is the brand’s #1 point of sale.

My advice hasn’t changed: stick with authorised dealers. Leave the grey market to the flippers and fast-talkers. That world’s full of snake oil and short-term opportunists. Real relationships are built in boutiques, and those are the people who’ll still pick up your call years from now.

If you’ve been circling the idea of buying a luxury watch, now’s the time to move. Walk into a few boutiques, see who’s willing to deal, and have the right conversations.

The market might need another year to properly rebound, another couple of interest rate cuts too, but right now there are windows open that don’t appear often.

Stay sharp. That watch you thought was untouchable may suddenly be within reach.