We’re all well aware that airlines are constantly changing ticket costs, but why do they do this and how on earth do they come up with those eye-watering numbers? More importantly, how can you beat the flux? Read on to find out.
Travel can pose a whole heap of unexpected challenges — from a man urinating all over business class to a disgusting sock-stuffed seat, from a woman being publicly weighed in the airport to a hostess being beaten with an in-flight phone — we’ve witnessed some of the strangest incidents the skies have ever seen here at DMARGE. And yet, there’s one inscrutable mystery that endlessly perplexes us all: why do flights cost so much, why does that cost fluctuate so much, and how the hell can you find the best deal in a constantly oscillating marketplace?
Writing in The Sydney Morning Herald, Michael Gebicki provides a jaw-dropping example of this phenomenon and gives a good account of exactly why this happens, but with the help of local expert Immanuel Debeer from Flight Hacks, we’re also unveiling the secret to beating the market flux and helping you get away for less. But first, let’s have a look at Gebicki’s killer case study…
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It all starts with an email from a concerned traveller who was looking at buying an economy class ticket with Japan’s ANA from Sydney to Paris in November 2023. Looking at flying out on Sunday, November 5th and returning on Sunday, November 26th was set to cost a reasonable $2162. However, after making a mere one-day change — now flying out on Saturday, November 4th and returning on the same Sunday in late November — was quoted at the astronomical price of $8002. That’s almost a 300% increase, but why on earth does this happen?
Back in the good old days, ticket costs were based on the season alone – not summer, winter and alike, but ‘high’, ‘low’, and ‘shoulder’ seasons. Now, the variables are numerous and the algorithms used to cross-reference them are almost inexplicable, taking into account a range of factors such as the timing of ticket purchase, competition on a specific route, seat availability and demand for those specific seats, all before the day and time of the chosen flight even gets a look in.
Special events or holidays also play their part. Gebicki cites two such events that reveal a lot about his personality as well as the ticket market: a Taylor Swift concert or the 2024 Paris Olympics will create a massive surge in demand, driving higher ticket costs. These factors, along with many others that we have neither the time nor the expertise to explain, contribute to the rapid and often unpredictable changes in ticket prices. Gebciki sums this all up nicely in the following statement:
“Unless the passenger sitting next to you is travelling on the same booking, the chance they paid the same fare as you is close to zero.”
Michael Gebicki
Airline revenue managers also play a crucial role in setting ticket prices. Their responsibility is to analyze and predict the demand for each individual flight, adjusting prices accordingly to maximize the airline’s revenue. In the case of the ANA ticket from Sydney to Paris, the airline likely had limited seats available on the first and second Fridays in November, as well as the first Saturday. This scarcity could go some way towards explaining the extraordinary price differences.
However, as the age of the internet has helped us all to realise, relying on a single airline or travel agent’s prices for any given journey is almost never going to land you the best deal. The far more effective option is using a search engine or aggregator to get a birds-eye-view of the market. While Gebecki goes on to plug Skyscanner at some length, our local expert Immanuel Debeer from Flight Hacks has other ideas. Commenting on Gebecki’s article, Debeer had this to say:
“The article reads as a paid promo for Skyscanner, a much better tool is available in the form of Google Flights.”
Immanuel Debeer
While many of us have heard of Google Flights, far fewer of us are probably au fait with the best ways to use it and how to really get the most value out of it. Debeer recommends the following: first, using ‘calendar view’ to quickly find the dates that have the best pricing. Then, and this is a great idea for those taking longer trips…
“Google Flights also allows you to enter multiple destinations at the same time which is a nice power tip if you want to check pricing quickly between the big hubs.”
Immanuel Debeer
Finally, if you’re letting your wanderlust really take the reigns and haven’t yet decided where you want to go — you just want to go somewhere — then have a look in Google Flights’ ‘Explore Page’, where you can type in “[Your home airport] to Anywhere”, along with your preferred dates, and you’ll get a whole range of options displayed on a map at the best price available.
As a closing note, however, we also want to remind readers that Google Flights — just like Skyscanner — is a data-sucking, money-making machine, albeit a very helpful one. We recommend regularly clearing your browser cookies and visiting the site in an ‘Incognito’ tab if you want to increase your chances of seeing the best deals out there, before the pesky airlines track your interest and jack up their rates.
In this turbulent market, knowledge is power, and armed with these insights, you’ll be soaring through the skies without breaking the bank before you know it. Bon voyage…