Rolex, Patek, Audemars Piguet & More: 5 Big Predictions In Luxury Watches For 2024

We get out the crystal ball with Felix Scholz, one of Australia's pre-eminent watch experts.

Rolex, Patek, Audemars Piguet & More: 5 Big Predictions In Luxury Watches For 2024


The countdown to Watches & Wonders 2024 is on, so it’s time for us to make some wild speculations about what the brands will release. We get out the crystal ball with Felix Scholz, one of Australia’s pre-eminent watch experts, to get his two cents on what you can expect from Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Cartier and Omega this year.

Will Rolex switch from Pepsi to Coke?

Spot the difference. IMAGE: DMARGE

When it comes to predictions, Rolex is the one brand everyone has an opinion on, yet no one really knows what they’re planning. The secrecy of the Crown is legendary, and they know how to keep everyone guessing; case in point, their 2023 releases featured an absolutely wild emoji-themed watch that no one saw coming.

That being said, there are a few solid options for 2024.

First of all, the GMT-Master II ‘Coke’, so called for its black and red bezel. This colour combo was last seen on a GMT in 2007, so it’s well past due for a return. Plus, there have reportedly been numerous technical issues with getting the colours right on the ceramic bezels of the popular ‘Pepsi GMT (that’s blue and red for those not intimately familiar with carbon beverage colourways).

This has heightened speculation that the black and blue Pepsi GMT will be retired and replaced with the black and red ‘Coke’.

A new collection for Patek Philippe?


Patek Philippe’s CEO, Thierry Stern, has promised new watches and a brand-new collection for 2024. This is huge news. Any brand launching an entirely new collection is a big deal, but when we’re talking about Patek Philippe, it’s all anyone will be able to talk about.

For all the hype around models like the Nautilus, Patek Philippe is quite conservative, with only two new lines added in the last 25 years: the women’s Twenty~4 in 2018 and the Aquanaut in 1997.

The 10 billion dollar question (the company’s reported value back in 2019) is, what will the new collection look like? Well, the bad news is no one knows, but there are some hints. The explosive popularity of the Nautilus and Patek’s move to cool the fires by retiring the iconic steel Ref 5711 suggests that we’re not too likely to see a new steel sports watch join the collection any time soon.

Precious metals and complications make for a much more likely combo, not only because the higher price tag can help manage demand but also because it makes for a higher profit margin, and moving even further up the market is the name of the game in 2024.

A new era for Audemars Piguet

Ref. 26393QT.OO.A064KB.01 IMAGE: DMARGE

The lazy prediction for Audemars Piguet is ‘more Royal Oaks’. But we can do better. The Audemars Piguet 2024 collection will be an interesting one for AP, as it’s the first without long-term CEO François-Henry Bennahmias steering the ship (Iliara Resta now has the job).

Besides top-tier endorsements and collaboration deals (hello, Travis Scott and Marvel), AP has strong form, innovative materials, and finishes. Their ‘frosted gold’ watches offer a unique take on regular gold, and AP’s ceramic-cased watches are standouts. However, these days, straight-up ceramic isn’t as novel as it once was, so perhaps it’s time for AP to mix things up a little; how does ‘frosted ceramic’ sound?

The other milestone to note is that the Code 11.59 is turning five. It had a rocky start in 2019, but by now, the not-so-new line has found its feet, so we’d expect to see some minor fanfare with complicated dial treatments.

Cartier keeps up the good work


In the last five years, Cartier has turned the dial on their watchmaking efforts up to 11, with new takes on their iconic shapes capturing the hearts and wrists of fans — from Timothée Chalamet rocking a diamond-set Crash to Emma Chamberlain wearing a Cartier Baignoire around her neck.

Honestly, it’s not too tricky to guess what Cartier will do — because they focus on their existing collections and stay in their design-driven lane. The Tank Française has been a highlight recently, as has the Pasha, so we hope to see some new additions to those families.

Just because we’re feeling frisky, we’d love to see a new version of the wild Pasha Golf Counter.

Omega avoids vintage and hopes for Bond, James Bond


Moonsswatch aside, Omega had a rough time in 2023, with the company rocked by an auction scandal that saw a multi-million dollar fraud involving a vintage Speedmaster and three former employees. Sketchy auction dealings happen, but to make it worse, Omega bought the dodgy watch themselves for an unprecedented USD 3.4 million.

So, we don’t think that the brand is going to shy away from vintage reissues. Luckily for Omega, Paris is playing host to the Olympics this year, so expect to see a lot of sporty new models with a Parisian flair coming out this year. Oui oui.

The other potential big news for Omega in 2024 is the return of Bond — or at least the announcement of the actor donning the Tom Ford tuxedo. It might seem inconsequential, but a fresh face for the franchise is sure to help sell truckloads of Seamasters